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全球债市突变脸 资金"弃债转股"初露端倪

来源: 中国证券报  
2019-09-17 08:29:26
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  9月以来,全球部分主要央行宽松动作不断,债券市场却遭遇两年多来最显著调整,同时,股票等风险资产悄然走强。全球资金露出“弃债转股”的苗头。

  分析人士认为,避险资产与风险资产的表现此消彼长,揭示出风险偏好回升这个关键推手。另外,前期债券等避险资产涨幅太大,有透支嫌疑。当债市收益率降至历史低位,股票相对变得诱人,在中长期内跑赢债券可能性较大。不过,基本面拐点信号还需等待。

  债市调整

  在收益率跌至历史低位并将负利率债券规模推向创纪录水平后,过去两周,全球债市突然陷入大幅调整,美国、德国和中国10年期国债收益率相继反弹至8月以来高位。

  英为财情数据显示,作为全球债市风向标,美国10年期国债收益率在过去一周大幅上行35个基点,单周上行幅度创2016年11月19日当周以来最大。9月4日至13日,美国10年期国债收益率在短短8个交易日里上行达44个基点。

  欧洲方面,有代表性的德国10年期国债收益率在8月中旬跌至最低-0.71%后企稳,进入9月展开快速反弹,截至9月13日累计上行28个基点。德国25年期和30年期国债收益率一举重返正值。

  全球债市调整共此时,中国债市亦不例外。在月初降准消息公布后,中国债市收益率走高。在16日盘中,银行间市场上10年期国债活跃券最高成交到3.12%,较月初低点反弹11个基点,继10年期美债、10年期德债后,收益率涨至8月以来最高水平。

  值得一提的是,9月以来,全球部分主要央行宽松动作不断,欧洲央行重拾降息、中国央行祭出“全面+定向”降准,市场还普遍认为美联储将在本月再次降息。宽松靴子相继落地,全球债市却遭遇大幅调整,多少令投资者有些意外。

  推手现身

  过去这一年,属于债市的“大年”。到今年8月,不少欧洲国家甚至连30年期国债收益率都沦为负值,成为债券牛市疯狂的注脚。那么,9月以来全球债市行情缘何突然上演急转弯?

  一些分析人士提到了供给端的扰动。综合来看,更关键因素应该是两个:一是金融市场风险偏好提升;二是前期债券收益率太低。

  近期,金融市场风险偏好提升。在避险资产阵营中,除债市全面调整外,贵金属价格亦从高位回落。在风险资产阵营中,8月以来全球股市上涨,标普500指数重回历史高点附近,上证综指亦从8月低点反弹近10%。9月以来,澳元、新西兰元等典型风险货币纷纷对美元升值,离岸人民币汇率一度反弹超过1600点。

  国盛证券固收分析师刘郁表示,如果说前期全球债市收益率持续下行,受避险情绪推动,那么,这一过程在9月以来在朝着反方向演进。

  另一关键原因可能是债市收益率太低。利率低本身就是风险。  华泰证券首席固收分析师张继强称,前期美债收益率下行至2016年低位附近,已隐含多次降息预期,存在一定超跌嫌疑。在接近重要阻力位后,美债收益率在情绪推动下反弹。

  2019年以来,全球资金持续涌向债市在将收益率压至极端低位的同时,造成单边交易过于拥挤。以往经验多次表明,在利空刺激下,拥挤交易可能引发剧烈反向调整。这在近期债市调整中表现得比较明显。

  8月,我国10年期国债收益率短暂跌破3%,此后便出现下行乏力的迹象。对国内债市来说,海外市场调整及风险偏好变化同样构成扰动因素,再加上8月全国居民消费价格指数(CPI)和金融数据超预期、月初中期借贷便利(MLF)操作落空、专项债额度提前下达等因素影响,短期内边际利空不少。

  股票诱人

  近期“股债跷跷板”现象比较突出。资金流向监测机构EPFR最新发布的数据显示,9月5日至9月11日,全球股票型基金由此前的连续“失血”转为大幅“吸金”,而此前一直备受青睐的全球债券型基金的“吸金”速度明显放缓。在债市收益率降至历史低位之后,全球资金显露出“弃债转股”的苗头。

  当前股市有两大利好“撑腰”。

  一是相对债券而言,股票性价比上升。当前债市收益率太低。8月底,美国30年期国债收益率一度跌穿标普500股息率,为2009年以来首次。股息率超过无风险债券收益率,意味着即便对青睐固定收益的投资者来说,股票的性价比也开始变得诱人。

  二是风险偏好提升阶段性地利好股票。近期风险偏好为何回升?原因可能包括:全球贸易紧张情绪缓和;全球主要央行加大逆周期调节力度;数据表明经济状况没有原先预期的那般糟糕。比如,美国8月消费数据稳定增长,推动该国核心CPI升至2.4%,创11年新高。美国2年期与10年期国债收益率结束倒挂,也表明市场对美国经济衰退的担忧减弱。在这两项利好中,前者意味着股票在中长期内跑赢债券几率上升,后者意味着股票在短期内跑赢债券成为大概率事件。

  在短期内,风险偏好仍可能上升。在欧央行降息后,美联储也很可能降息,有望带动其他一些国家央行采取行动,全球流动性边际改善有望助长风险偏好。

  从以往经验看,当全球金融市场风险偏好修复,新兴市场资产往往最受益。A股近期上涨行情比美股、欧股都来得更早些;北上资金和融资资金均持续大幅净流入,增量资金入场迹象比较明显。

  东方证券研报指出,在降准之后,经济企稳预期强化,叠加风险偏好回升,风险资产价格上行预计持续性更久。  招商证券张夏团队认为,在逆周期调节力度加大、“深改12条”推动长期资金入市等政策背景下,市场宏观和微观流动性都有望得到改善,短期可能成为推动A股市场上涨重要力量。银河证券策略分析师付延平发文称,政策利好持续提振市场信心,月内股市有望延续上涨行情。  国泰君安研报指出,在盈利与估值共振下,A股有望迎来跨年行情,需把握战略配置期建仓机会。

  分析人士指出,近期流动性变化、资本市场深化改革均构成实质利好,如果基本面释放拐点信号,A股积蓄已久的爆发力将有望充分释放。目前,基本面拐点信号还需等待。经济状况没有预想的差和经济向好,虽然都可能提振风险偏好,但终归不是一码事。从这个角度看,流动性仍是主导因素,近一阶段股债双牛格局暂时不会发生根本变化。

  张继强认为,尽管近期债市受多重因素扰动,但内外利差较厚、政策利率下调可期等几大核心支撑因素尚未动摇,可采取“涨不追、跌不怕”的应对策略。

关键词:全球债市责任编辑:吴海燕
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